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cointelegraph.com Mar 10, 2025 12:31

Why is the crypto market down today? - The cryptocurrency market erased all gains from President Trump’s US Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement, plunging by over 14.7% in seven days to reach $2.7 trillion on March 10.Top cryptocurrencies and their 24-hour performances. Source: Coin360Several factors have contributed to the latest drop in crypto prices, including:Trump’s acknowledgement that his policies will cause short-term pain to the economy.Investors are risk-off amid the continued outflows from crypto investment products.TOTAL drops toward the technical target of a descending triangle.Trump acknowledges short-term pain for economyPresident Trump’s recent statements have cast a shadow over the crypto market, tempering the enthusiasm that followed his pro-crypto rhetoric earlier in 2025. Key points:Bitcoin  (BTC) declined 4% in the last 24 hours.Ether (ETH) is down 3.2% over the last 24 hours to trade just above $2,000.Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) have also recorded losses, down 7.2% and 4.5%, respectively.Compounding the issue are the significant liquidations in the derivatives market. A total of $650.80 million in liquidations has been recorded in the past 24 hours.Long positions took the hardest hit, with $595.75 million liquidated.Crypto market liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassBitcoin and Ethereum were the biggest casualties, with $264.22 million and $114.76 million in liquidations, respectively.When long positions are liquidated, traders’ holdings are automatically sold, increasing market supply and driving prices lower.More critically, US President Donald Trump acknowledged that markets could see short-term pain from his policies, including the trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China and budget-cutting plans.“There could be a little disruption, said Trump in an interview with Fox News, adding:“If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective… we go by quarters. What we’re doing is building a foundation for the future.”The market, which surged post-election on hopes of a deregulated, crypto-friendly administration, is now grappling with the reality that Trump’s broader economic agenda may introduce headwinds before any crypto-specific benefits materialize.Investors continue de-risking from crypto fundsThe crypto market’s ongoing correction aligns with the huge capital outflows from crypto investment products. Key takeaways:Digital asset investment products saw outflows for the fourth week in a row, totaling $876 million during the week ending March 7, as per CoinShares report.This brings outflows to $4.75 billion in the last four weeks, reducing the year-to-date inflows to $2.6 billion.This indicates institutional investors decreased their exposure to digital assets.Bitcoin saw the biggest share of outflows, totaling $756 million.Total assets under management have declined by $39 billion from their peak to the current value of $142 billion, the lowest point since mid-November 2024. Capital flows for crypto investment products. Source: CoinSharesCoinShares head of research James Butterfill attributed this to “negative sentiment,” suggesting “capitulation” among investors.“Although this indicates a slowdown in the pace of outflows, investor sentiment remains bearish. ”Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 10 on March 10, its lowest since July 2022, indicating “extreme fear.”The Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meTOTAL validates descending triangleFrom a technical perspective, today’s crypto market’s decline is part of a correction trend that saw TOTAL—the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies—drop below a descending triangle pattern.A descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern, forming when the price makes lower highs while maintaining a flat support level at the bottom.The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the support level with high volume and drops by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.As of March 10, TOTAL had fallen to the pattern’s target of $2.6 trillion at the 50-weekly simple moving average (SMA).TOTAL/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf selling pressure persists, the 100–week SMA at $2 trillion could become the next downside target.Holding the 50-week SMA as support may strengthen the ongoing rebound toward the pattern’s lower trendline, aligning with the $3.1 trillion level.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

FOMO: 90%
cointelegraph.com Mar 10, 2025 08:17

Biggest red weekly candle ever: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week - Bitcoin starts the second week of March at a bearish crossroads as new multimonth lows get closer.Traders and analysts agree that little stands in the way of a $78,000 retest as BTC/USD seals its worst-ever weekly candle.CPI and PPI are due as markets enter a broad risk-off phase and stocks’ futures tumble.How low can Bitcoin (BTC) go? Old $69,000 all-time highs from 2021 are back on the menu.Sentiment is on the floor, and not just in crypto, but not everyone believes that the situation is really all that bad.Whales have been buying throughout the past week, indicating a solid risk-return basis at current price levels.BTC price dives 14% in a weekDiving to $80,000 into the weekly close, Bitcoin’s latest weekly candle stands out for all the wrong reasons.In US dollar terms, BTC/USD shed more value in seven days than at any time in history, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSo far, bulls have narrowly avoided a rematch with multimonth lows from late February, but among some Bitcoin traders, the mood is predictably cautious.“Bitcoin is back in the critical zone of the weekly parabolic trend,” analyst Kevin Svenson wrote in his latest analysis on X. “We are still holding the current lows of last week, no new low has been created yet. This is $BTCs last chance to maintain an exponential higher low.”BTC/USD 1-week chart with parabolic trendline. Source: Kevin Svenson/XTrader SuperBro joined those preparing for a $78,000 rematch.“Closed above the prior candle’s low and 50% level, but cracked the uptrend from Oct ’23,” a reaction to the weekly close stated.“A candle like that rarely turns on a dime, so despite bullish divergences on the LTF Im prepared for a sweep of the lows.”BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: SuperBro/XOthers sought more data to confirm a truly bearish breakdown.“Are we in a bear market now? Simply no. There isn’t enough confluence to confirm that at all,” trader CrypNuevo argued in a dedicated X thread.Even for him, however, new lows were on the cards, with the area around $77,000 particularly important.“We can see some liquidations exactly at $77k in HTF, although they are not as reliable as LTF liquidations,” he continued.BTC order book liquidity data. Source: CrypNuevo/XCPI week overshadowed by market nervesThis week’s key US macroeconomic data releases are not in short supply, but markets are already flipping to an increasingly “risk-off” stance.The February print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both due, along with the familiar job openings and jobless claims figures.Both CPI and PPI overshot the mark last month amid an inflation rebound, which shook mark confidence.Since then, neither crypto nor stocks have succeeded in recovering, and with the next Federal Reserve interest rates decision coming next week, there is little sign of optimism.The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a cut on March 19 at just 3%. Meanwhile, the Fed’s May meeting is seeing rate-cut odds rapidly decrease.Fed target rate probability comparison. Source: CME Group“Amid all the trade war chaos, we have seen economic growth expectations crash sharply,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its latest X analysis.“The Atlanta Fed reduced their Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate to as low as -2.8% last week. As a result, we saw interest rate cut expectations move up SHARPLY last week.”Kobeissi noted that on short timeframes, stocks were gearing up for a “red” open.“Crypto’s decline was a clear indication of growing risk-off sentiment this weekend,” it summarized.Back to 2021 for BTC price?Regarding BTC price bottom targets, the landscape is looking ever more nerve-racking for bulls.With $80,000 hanging in the balance, one classic forecasting tool suggests that a reliable floor may only lie at an old Bitcoin all-time high — not from last year, but from 2021.Created by network economist Timothy Peterson in 2019, Lowest Price Forward effectively delivers BTC price levels that will not be violated in the future.In mid-2020, it correctly predicted that BTC/USD would never trade below $10,000 from September onward.Now, the new line in the sand lies somewhere around $69,000.“Lowest Price Forward doesn’t tell you where Bitcoin will be. It tells you where Bitcoin won’t be,” Peterson told X followers in a recent post this month.“There is a 95% chance it wont fall below $69k.”Bitcoin Lowest Price Forward chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/XPeterson’s tool is not alone in eyeing new macro lows for BTC/USD to come.As Cointelegraph reported, calls for a trip to the mid-$70,000 range are growing, with Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) a key target at $75,560.The 200-day SMA, traditionally a bull market support line, failed as support around the latest weekly close for the first time since last October.BTC/USD 1-week chart with 50-week, 200-day SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“An ugly start to the week,” Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, wrote in response, referring to open interest (OI). “Looks like $BTC will retest $78k. If it fails, $75k is next in the crosshairs. There are a lot of options OI struck $70-$75k, if we get into that range it will be violent.”The current multimonth low of just above $78,000 came at the end of February.Crypto, macro sentiment match historical lowsIt is no secret that Bitcoin and wider crypto market sentiment is struggling in the current environment, but the extent of the bearishness may come as a surprise.The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index puts the overall mood firmly back in the “extreme fear” zone, with the market enjoying a mere one-day break last week.The Index has seldom been lower in recent years, with Bitcoin’s trip to $78,000 last month sparking a three-year record reading of just 10/100.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meIt is not just crypto. As noted by finance and trading resource Barchart, stocks are also nervous, to an extent rarely seen this century.“Sentiment is extremely bearish, which is actually bullish,” Peterson argued about the same data. “Lowest reading since the bottom of GFC and COVID crash. Markets soared after that.  Opportunities of the decade.”Source: BarchartProfessional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano called on crypto investors not to pay attention to sentiment gauges at all.“The Fear & Greed Index for crypto one year ago was at ‘Extreme Greed’ of 92. Today we are at ‘Extreme Fear’ of 17. Bitcoin is 20% higher over the same time frame,” an X post from March 10 reads.“Dont get tricked by online sentiment. It is all noise.”Bitcoin whales wake upIs there light at the end of the tunnel of what has become a hefty crypto bull market pullback?Related: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8Positive cues may be few and far between, but for research firm Santiment, one stands out: large investor accumulation.Over the first full week of March, it shows, Bitcoin whales and “sharks” — entities with 10 BTC or more — felt it appropriate to start increasing their BTC exposure again.“In short, their mild dumping from mid-February to early March contributed to crypto’s latest dump,” Santiment wrote in part of X commentary. “But since March 3, wallets with 10+ $BTC have accumulated nearly 5,000 Bitcoin back into their collective wallets.”Bitcoin whale, shark accumulation. Source: Santiment/XResearchers acknowledged that price action has yet to reflect their conviction, but a delayed response could well mean that the market sees a fresh relief rally next.“Prices have not reacted to their buying just yet, but don’t be surprised if the 2nd half of March turns out much better than the bloodbath we’ve seen since Bitcoins ATH 7 weeks ago... assuming these large key stakeholders continue their coin collecting,” they concluded.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

FOMO: 85%
cointelegraph.com Mar 10, 2025 10:04

Crypto ETPs see 4th straight week of outflows, totaling $876M — CoinShares - Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded a fourth straight week of outflows, with $876 million in losses during the past trading week.After posting record weekly outflows of $2.9 billion last week, crypto ETPs continued their downward trend, bringing the four-week total outflows to $4.75 billion, CoinShares reported on March 10.While the pace of outflows slowed, investor sentiment remained bearish, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares.The analyst also suggested that the market has shown signs of capitulation.Bitcoin ETP selling accounted for 86% of total outflowsBitcoin (BTC) ETPs were the primary driver of outflows, accounting for $756 million, or 85% of last week’s total. Short-Bitcoin ETPs also saw outflows of $19.8 million, the most since December 2024. With cumulative outflows reaching $4.75 billion over the past four weeks, the year-to-date inflows dropped to $2.6 billion.Weekly crypto ETP flows since late 2024. Source: CoinSharesTotal assets under management (AUM) declined by $39 billion to $142 billion, the lowest point since mid-November 2024, driven by both negative price movements and sustained outflows, Butterfill noted.Most altcoins shared bleeding sentimentThis bearish sentiment was also observed among a wide range of altcoins last week, with Ether (ETH) ETPs seeing $89 million of outflows.Tron (TRX) and Aave (AAVE) were also among the most notable ETP losers, seeing $32 million and $2.4 million in outflows, respectively, according to the report.Flows by asset (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesConversely, Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP) and Sui (SUI) continued to see inflows totaling $16.4 million, $5.6 million and $2.7 million, respectively, Butterfill wrote.Fidelity sees the largest outflows among ETP providersAmong crypto ETP issuers, Fidelity Investments saw the largest outflows last week at $201 million, bringing its YTD outflows to $159 million.BlackRock’s iShares exchange-traded funds (ETF) were the second largest loser, with weekly outflows amounting to $193 million.Related: US Bitcoin reserve prompts $370 million in ETF outflows: FarsideDespite seeing significant selling in the past few weeks, BlackRock is still the biggest crypto holder among other issuers, with $52.8 billion in AuM and $3 billion in YTD outflows.Flows by issuer (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinSharesOther major losses in the United States were seen by ARK Invest and 21Shares, which recorded $164 million in outflows, with YTD flows still standing positive at $110 million.ProShares ETFs were again among the few US crypto ETFs that did not see outflows, recording $15 million of inflows.Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

FOMO: 85%